The longest-held Bitcoin in circulation is finally staying put. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that investors who have held BTC for at least five years, the so-called OGs, have cut their selling to a 90-day average of just 962 BTC per day. That figure marks the lowest reading since November 2024 and a dramatic retreat from the peak liquidation waves that rocked the market throughout 2025.
At roughly $62,750 per coin as of Tuesday morning, the slowdown suggests these veteran holders see little reason to exit at current prices. And with spot ETF outflows also moderating over the past two weeks, a structural floor may be forming beneath a market that spent much of the past six months bleeding capital.
962 BTC: The Metric Behind the Headline
CryptoQuant tracks OG behavior through spent transaction outputs (STXO), a blockchain measurement that flags whenever coins dormant for five or more years finally move. Movement almost always means the holder is liquidating or repositioning, so a drop in STXOs translates directly to less supply hitting exchanges.
The 90-day moving average smooths out daily noise. When that average sat above 5,000 BTC in early 2025, it meant veteran investors were consistently offloading the equivalent of more than $400 million worth of coins every single day at then-prevailing prices. At 962 BTC and a $62,750 spot price, the daily supply injection from OGs has shrunk to around $60 million, a reduction of roughly 85% in dollar terms.
Why does this cohort matter more than, say, retail traders or short-term speculators? Because OGs by definition accumulated at prices a fraction of today’s level. Their cost basis can be sub-$10,000, sometimes sub-$1,000. Every coin they choose not to sell is one fewer unit of essentially free supply weighing on bids.
A Selling Spree That Lasted Two Years
To appreciate the shift, you have to understand what came before it. The bull cycle that began in early 2023 triggered the most aggressive OG selling in Bitcoin’s 17-year history. Every major price surge brought a corresponding spike in five-year-plus STXOs.
CryptoQuant’s historical data shows three distinct peaks:
- May 2024: BTC crossed $100,000 for the first time, and single-day OG selling exceeded 142,000 BTC.
- February 2025: A second push above $100,000 prompted another wave, though slightly smaller.
- September 2025: A third spike coincided with BTC’s final leg above six figures before the pullback that brought prices to current levels.
Those waves created a persistent headwind. Every rally above $100,000 ran into a wall of supply from holders who had waited half a decade or longer to cash in. The pattern became so reliable that traders began front-running it, selling into strength on the assumption that OGs would cap the move anyway.
Now, with the 90-day average at 962 BTC, that assumption no longer holds. The sellers have stepped back.
The $63,000 Break-Even Hypothesis
Why the sudden restraint? One theory circulating among on-chain analysts points to cost basis.
Five years ago, in mid-2021, Bitcoin traded in a wide range between roughly $30,000 and $65,000. The absolute peak that summer was around $64,000 before the May crash, and a subsequent rally pushed to $69,000 in November 2021. An OG who bought at the worst possible moment five years ago, the November 2021 top, would have a cost basis near $69,000. At $62,750, that buyer is still underwater.
For anyone who accumulated at lower 2021 prices, the current level is profitable but not spectacularly so. The risk-reward of selling at $63,000 when you’ve already ridden through multiple 50%+ drawdowns and a $100,000 peak may not feel compelling. Many of these holders likely expected higher eventual exits and are choosing to wait rather than lock in what feels like a mediocre outcome.
The CryptoQuant analyst summarized it simply on X: “At current prices, these investors are choosing to continue holding rather than sell, thereby contributing to the easing of selling pressure.”
ETF Outflows Add a Second Data Point
OG restraint alone doesn’t guarantee a bottom. But when combined with moderating spot ETF outflows, the picture becomes more interesting.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, led by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC, had been bleeding capital for much of the past two months. Earlier this month, the ETF complex recorded $4.4 billion in net outflows as institutional holders rotated toward other assets. That kind of sustained selling from a cohort with hundreds of billions in AUM can move markets.
Over the past two weeks, though, the pace of withdrawals has slowed. Daily outflows that had regularly topped $300 million have shrunk to double-digit figures on some days. The bleeding hasn’t stopped entirely, but the worst of the hemorrhage appears to be behind us for now.
Two distinct investor classes, OGs and ETF holders, reducing sell pressure simultaneously creates a compounding effect. The bid side doesn’t have to absorb as much supply, which raises the probability that any demand shock (a macro catalyst, a regulatory win, renewed retail interest) translates into price appreciation rather than getting swallowed by overhead.
What 2024-2025 Taught About OG Cycles
If you’ve followed Bitcoin long enough, you know that OG selling tends to cluster around euphoric tops and then evaporate during consolidation phases. The pattern makes intuitive sense: holders who survived the 2018 bear market, the 2020 COVID crash, and the 2022 FTX collapse aren’t going to panic-sell at $60,000. They’ve seen worse.
What distinguishes the current cycle is the sheer volume of distribution that already occurred. The single-day spikes above 100,000 BTC in 2024 and 2025 were unprecedented. A substantial portion of the oldest coins in existence changed hands during those windows. Some of that supply ended up in ETF custody, some went to exchanges and was sold to newer entrants, and some likely moved to cold storage under new ownership.
The implication is that the remaining OGs who didn’t sell above $100,000 may be an even more conviction-heavy subset. They passed on generational profits and are presumably not going to capitulate at levels 40% lower.
This pattern echoes earlier retail behavior in 2026, when small investors dumped aggressively during the spring drawdown while long-term holders sat tight. The difference now is that even the most patient cohort, the five-year-plus club, has gone from active distribution to near-total dormancy.
Risks to the Bull Case
A decline in OG selling is necessary but not sufficient for a sustained rally. Several headwinds remain.
First, exchange volumes across the industry have been weak. CoinDesk Research reported that combined exchange volumes fell to $4.41 trillion in May, the lowest since September 2024. Thin liquidity means prices can move sharply in either direction on relatively small flows. A renewed wave of ETF redemptions or a macro shock could push BTC toward the $59,000 support zone that traders have flagged as the next line of defense.
Second, the OG slowdown is a lagging indicator. These holders react to price, not the other way around. If Bitcoin were to spike back above $100,000 tomorrow, there’s little reason to assume OGs wouldn’t resume selling. The current restraint is conditional on the current price regime.
Third, cost-basis analysis has limits. Not every OG bought at the 2021 top. Many accumulated at $10,000, $5,000, or even lower. For those holders, $62,750 still represents a 6x to 12x return. Their decision to hold is a choice, not a necessity, and choices can change.
Finally, macro conditions remain uncertain. Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets has fluctuated, and any sharp move in equities or a hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve could override on-chain fundamentals.
Structural Floor or Temporary Lull?
The honest answer is that no one knows for certain. On-chain metrics describe what has happened, not what will happen. But the combination of signals, OG STXOs at a two-year low, ETF outflows moderating, and prices stabilizing around a plausible OG break-even zone, paints a more constructive picture than the data showed three months ago.
For traders using the derivatives dashboard to track funding rates and open interest, the current environment offers a relatively balanced backdrop. Funding has been mildly negative to neutral, suggesting the perpetual market isn’t overleveraged in either direction. Open interest remains elevated but not at the extremes that typically precede violent liquidation cascades.
The next clear catalyst on the calendar is the late-July FOMC meeting, where the Fed is expected to provide updated guidance on rate policy. A dovish tilt could reignite risk appetite across crypto and equities alike. A hawkish surprise, or any indication that rate cuts are off the table for 2026, would test the nascent floor.
Until then, the market is left to digest the structural shift in OG behavior. After two years of relentless selling, the longest-held Bitcoin in existence is finally choosing to stay put.
Related Reading
- Top exchanges by volume
- Bitcoin news
- More on Bitcoin
- More on On-chain Analysis
- More on Long-term Holders
References
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Crypto markets are volatile, do your own research.
