Bitcoin climbed to $77,400 on Thursday, riding a wave of optimism generated by blockbuster earnings from America’s largest technology companies, but the rally masks a market still wrestling with rate-cut disappointment, geopolitical turmoil, and persistent institutional selling.
The move higher came after Apple joined Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon in reporting double-digit revenue growth this week. That string of results steadied equity markets and, by extension, crypto. Yet calling this a new bull leg would be premature. Analysts describe the bounce as relief buying, not conviction, and multiple headwinds remain in place that could cap gains well short of the psychologically important $80,000 threshold.
Big Tech Earnings Revive the AI Trade
Apple’s quarterly report landed late Wednesday, completing a sweep of positive results from the five largest U.S. tech companies. All of them posted double-digit revenue growth, a feat that rekindled enthusiasm for the artificial-intelligence growth narrative that had powered markets through much of 2024 and early 2025.
For crypto, the connection is indirect but meaningful. Bitcoin and Ethereum have traded with increasing correlation to risk assets over the past two years. When the Nasdaq rallies on AI optimism, capital tends to flow into digital assets as well. Thursday’s move fit that pattern. Bitcoin rose roughly 3% from its intraday low to touch $77,400, tracking equity futures higher in overnight trading.
Still, this is not the kind of move that suggests a durable trend change. Volume remained modest, and the rally failed to reclaim the $78,000 level that marked late-April resistance. Traders who bought the dip are likely operating with tight stops rather than building long-term positions.
Spot ETF Outflows Add to Short-Term Pressure
One of the more troubling signals for Bitcoin bulls is the persistent bleeding from U.S. spot ETFs. As April closed, the products saw more than $400 million in net outflows, a continuation of a pattern that has frustrated those expecting institutional buyers to provide a floor under the market.
Crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin summarized the situation as “short-term pressure with still-mixed structural factors.” The company’s head of research, Rony Szuster, pointed to ETF outflows, reduced rate-cut expectations, and elevated geopolitical risk as the key drags.
The ETF story is particularly notable because it undercuts the narrative that institutional adoption would smooth out Bitcoin’s notorious volatility. Instead, the products appear to be amplifying short-term swings as asset managers rebalance in response to macro developments. When Treasury yields rise or oil spikes, money exits Bitcoin ETFs. When sentiment improves, it trickles back in. The result is a market that remains highly reactive to headlines.
For a deeper look at how ETF flows have shaped price action this year, our ETF flows explainer breaks down the mechanics.
Oil Prices and the Strait of Hormuz
Crude oil has become an unexpected protagonist in the crypto narrative. The Iran conflict and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude to a four-year high of $126.41 before settling around $114 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate futures added 0.45% Friday to trade at $105.54.
Higher oil prices feed directly into inflation, and inflation constrains central banks. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged this week at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the decision came with four dissenting voices, the most since 1992. That level of disagreement signals a deeply divided committee and prompts skepticism about the path forward.
Iran has threatened “long and painful strikes” on U.S. positions if Washington renews attacks, and it restated its claim to the Strait of Hormuz. That waterway handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil shipments. Any sustained closure would send crude prices even higher, potentially into triple digits on a sustained basis. For crypto, that scenario would likely mean more ETF outflows as investors rotate into cash and bonds.
We covered Bitcoin’s initial reaction to the Iran tensions last week when BTC slipped after Trump scrapped the Iran envoy trip. The pullback then was modest, but the underlying risk has only grown.
The Fed’s Leadership Transition
Jerome Powell’s chairmanship at the Federal Reserve ends on May 15. Kevin Warsh, who served as a Fed governor during the 2008 financial crisis, is expected to chair the June FOMC meeting. Warsh has historically favored tighter monetary policy, and his elevation could introduce a new source of volatility for markets.
The transition matters because the Fed has been the primary driver of asset prices since 2020. Powell’s tenure was marked by aggressive easing during the pandemic followed by the fastest rate-hiking cycle in four decades. His replacement will inherit an economy that is neither clearly overheating nor obviously slowing, and a geopolitical environment that complicates any policy choice.
For crypto traders, the key question is whether Warsh will signal a more hawkish stance at his first meeting. Even a subtle shift in tone could send Treasury yields higher and put renewed pressure on Bitcoin. Conversely, if Warsh surprises with dovish commentary, the market could rally sharply.
Mercado Bitcoin’s Szuster put it plainly: “In the short term, the market should remain volatile and highly reactive to economic data. In the medium term, the structure remains dependent on the stabilization of institutional flows and the path of global monetary policy.”
Technical Picture: $80,000 or Bust
The weekly chart tells a straightforward story. Bitcoin is testing rejection at the $80,000 resistance zone. The relative strength index (RSI) shows early signs of a bullish divergence, with the price printing a lower low while the RSI held higher. That divergence remains unconfirmed on a weekly close, however.
A failure to break above $80,000 keeps Bitcoin range-bound between the 200-day exponential moving average near $68,000 and that overhead resistance. The range has compressed over the past six weeks, and compressed ranges tend to resolve with sharp moves. The question is whether the breakout comes to the upside or the downside.
Traders watching our derivatives dashboard will note that funding rates have normalized after spiking negative during April’s selloff. Open interest remains elevated but not extreme. The setup is ambiguous, which is another way of saying the market is waiting for a catalyst.
A clean break above $80,000 with volume would likely draw in momentum buyers and potentially trigger a run toward the January highs near $88,000. A failed move, on the other hand, could see leveraged longs unwind quickly, sending the price back toward $72,000 or lower.
We flagged similar technical conditions last month when Bitcoin showed room to rally but faced a big catch in the derivatives data. That caution proved warranted as the subsequent move fizzled before reaching major resistance.
Strategy Maintains STRC Dividend as Stock Posts First Gain in Nine Months
Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) provided a bit of positive news for the corporate Bitcoin trade. The company maintained an 11.5% dividend rate for May on its perpetual preferred stock, Stretch (STRC). The volume-weighted average price during April came in at $99.76.
More notable than the dividend itself was the fact that STRC logged its first monthly gain in nine months. Strategy remains the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin, and the stock’s performance often serves as a barometer for institutional sentiment toward the asset. The bounce in April, modest as it was, suggests some stabilization in that corner of the market.
You can track Strategy’s holdings and compare them to other corporate treasuries on our Bitcoin treasury page.
What Happens From Here
The market is caught between competing narratives. On one side, strong tech earnings and the AI growth story support risk appetite. On the other, oil prices, ETF outflows, Fed uncertainty, and geopolitical risk argue for caution.
Seasonality offers a glimmer of hope. Historical data shows that May has tended to favor bulls, though the sample size is small and past performance is no guarantee. More important than calendar patterns will be the incoming data: this week’s jobs report, next week’s CPI print, and any developments in the Iran situation.
Bitcoin ended April in a defensive mood, and the early May bounce has not changed the overall picture. The $80,000 level remains the line in the sand. Until buyers can push decisively above it, the default assumption should be that the market remains range-bound with a bias toward chop.
For now, the rally to $77,400 feels more like a relief valve than a starting gun. Traders are right to stay alert.
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Note: nothing written here is a trade signal. Price movement discussed above is history, not a forecast. Verify anything you plan to act on.
